Toby on Tuesday

'Part And Parcel...'

Last Friday night, BBC Radio 4’s Any Questions? came from Pickering’s Kirk Theatre.   On the panel were Shami Chakrabarti, or Baroness Chakrabarti of Kennington as she is now after Jeremy Corbyn’s recent act of patronage, Tim Farron of the LibDems, Conservative Brexiteer Harsimrat Kaur and former Conservative Remainer but now Policing and Fire Services Minister and Brexiteer Brandon Lewis.   Our own, excellent in-house economist Rex Negus managed to ask a sensible question about the need for an effective opposition, but amid all the humbug and posturing it was funnily enough Tim Farron who made the one really salient point of the evening.  What he said was that any Brexit deal would ultimately be a stitch-up between civil servants in Whitehall, Berlin, Brussels and Paris.  He claimed this as a good reason for a second referendum, a claim that was wholly spurious, but his insight that the fingerprints of the bureaucrats would be all over the final deal was probably correct.

This is one principal reason why UKIP will be needed as much as ever during the coming years.   The other principal reason is that traditional, patriotic Labour voters, horrified by the direction their party is taking under Jeremy Corbyn, will need a new home.   They may never be able to bring themselves to vote Conservative, but a revitalised UKIP, committed to secure borders, strengthened defences and the restoration of so many of our industries, not least our fisheries, would be a compelling home for millions of forgotten voters.   Certainly the party of Jeremy Corbyn and Sadiq Khan, Labour Mayor of London, who recently declared that “living with terror attacks is part and parcel of living in a big city” no longer inspires any confidence, to put it mildly.

What does inspire confidence is the new UKIP, under the leadership of Diane James.   And what is reassuring is that Steven Woolfe, the charismatic North-West MEP who was unable to enter the leadership election himself, has just written a fine piece for the online publication HeatStreet (http://heatst.com/world/steven-woolfe-mep-ukips-future-is-bright-with-diane-james-as-leader) which is well worth reading in full.   What Steven says is that, “On Friday Nigel Farage, one of the nations’s most influential and effective politicians, stood on the platform at the UKIP conference and gave his last speech as leader...Moments later UKIP’s new chief, Diane James, took the stage as the party’s first female leader...Diane has a vision.   She is absolutely right to say that in the short term, UKIP must remain a loud and relevant voice in ensuring that Britain gets the best deal from leaving the European Union.   It was clear that Britain must take full control of its borders and reduce net migration.   It was clear that Britain must not continue to pay into the EU budget...” and much more.   

In essence what Steven, like Diane, is saying is that Brexit really must mean Brexit and a cosy stitch-up between civil servants will be good neither for Britain nor for the EU.   Brexit can be the catalyst for fundamental reform across the EU and a botched agreement will do no good to anyone.   But the real point is that Steven, with his strong Northern base in Labour’s heartlands is the perfect foil for Diane with her impeccable roots in the Conservative South.   Together they can reinforce UKIP’s role as the truly national party and his fine HeatStreet article is the starting point for a reunited UKIP in which all regions and all political backgrounds can find a home.  So let’s hope that in the new, strengthened UKIP there will be a major role for Steven.   And do please find time to read his splendid HeatStreet article.

But to return to Labour and its London Mayor’s claim that living with terror attacks was the new norm in big cities, we have to ask ourselves what steps we can take to eliminate as far as possible the many dangers that our country faces.  We know the source to be a virulent form of fundamentalism called wahhabism, onto which young men in particular have latched to provide them with a sense of narcissistic power.   We know that much of its funding has come from Saudi Arabia.   We know that it has infiltrated far too much of our own country.   And we know that, unless we can obtain complete control of our borders, the virus will only develop.   So to those who say that, with Brexit, UKIP’s work is done, I would reply that it has only just begun.   The Brexit negotiations will be complex, challenging and could easily divide our political system once more, yet the security of our country is paramount and cosy deals cooked up by civil servants will just not work, however plausible they look on the surface.   So UKIP, with new leadership from Diane James, hopefully from Steven Woolfe, and from many more will serve our country well in the years ahead, and could come to replace a Labour party that no longer resonates in its Northern heartlands as the true opposition!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'Celestial Bodies' 

For this week, three events to put a smile on the face of every UKIPper.

First, the leadership.   As leader of UKIP, indeed as the most influential political figure of the past generation, Nigel Farage was a meteor, in fact a fireball, in the political firmament.   As he hurtled through Eurospace, he left behind a trail of light, sometimes heat, and sometimes the charred remnants of those – from our former Prime Minister down - who unwisely found themselves in his path.   And without him, Britain would never have escaped the fatal trap or prison that is the European Union.    Our country owes him an immense debt that history will recognise more and more as the EU disintegrates.  By contrast, our new leader, Diane James, has the potential to become our Pole Star, our North Star, the constant around whom UKIP’s different elements can chart their course.   Stable, reliable and intelligent, she is precisely what the Party now needs and a sure guide to electoral success in the years ahead.   So it is vital for all our gifted, independent-minded UKIPpers to rally round Diane as the next stage of our journey unfolds.   She will certainly have the total support of all UKIPpers here in Yorkshire.

Next, the paralympics.   The figures speak for themselves – we can all interpret them as we wish, but they are simply humbling:

                                   Gold                 Silver                 Bronze                Total

1.  CHINA                    107                     81                       51                    239

2.  GB                           64                      39                       44                    147

3.  UKR                         41                      37                       39                    117

4.  US                            40                      44                       31                    115

5.  AUS                         22                      30                       29                     81

(figures correct as of 14:10 19/09/16)

Finally, an update on how the EU is finally descending into pure farce.   Our press has not really been reporting the latest spat between Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, and his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso.   Now Barroso first rose up via Portugal’s politics as a leader of the Maoist MRPP (Reorganising Movement of the Proletarian Party) before reaching the top of the EU, which he welcomed as a new European Empire – with Britain a mere colony of course.   In classic Blairite form, on his retirement in 2014 he decided to line his pockets as quickly as possible and was recently appointed Chairman of Goldman Sachs International.   This has caused a perfect storm within the European Commission, with Jean-Claude Juncker declaring, “Goldman Sachs was one of the organisations that...contributed to the enormous financial crisis we had between 2007 and 2009.   So one does wonder about the particular bank he has ended up working for.”   And EU staff have called the former Maoist’s behaviour “morally reprehensible.”   Indeed, one group of staff has launched a petition calling on him to forfeit his pension for bringing the EU into disrepute, a petition which has now received nearly 150,000 signatures.   So here is just one more example of why we must quit this rotten institution as soon as possible, bringing our soaring subsidies to an end.   And a revitalised UKIP under Diane James’ leadership – with Nigel Farage cheering her on in the background – will ensure that this is precisely what happens, so that Brexit really does mean Brexit!

Until next Tuesday!

 Toby on Tuesday

'Ideals and Ideologies'

As the years pass, the labels “left” and “right” seem to matter less and less.   Instead, the world appears to be divided between the ideologues and the empiricists – those who believe in an ideology, to which facts need to be bent, and those who believe in studying the evidence before forming a judgment.   European fascism and communism were once ideologies, just as the EU is now.   Britain was spared the twin evils of fascism and communism and, by a miracle and thanks to the Eurosceptic movement in the past generation, is now being spared the ideology of the EU.   Joseph Stiglitz, Professor of Economics at America’s Columbia Business School, chairman of President Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1995-1997, chief economist at the World Bank from 1997-2000 and winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001, has traditionally been seen as a figure of the left.   He has advised the Scottish government on independence, the Syriza government in Greece and briefly even sat on Jeremy Corbyn’s economic advisory panel.   But in his new book “The Euro and its Threat to the Future of Europe” he endorses everything that UKIP members have been saying about the EU for a generation now.   In his own words:

“There have been other things that Europe got wrong, but monetary union was the overarching macroeconomic mistake.   We can see this most clearly in the fact that some countries not in the euro but with the same regulatory framework, such as the UK and Sweden, did much better”...”The way the club was politically organised gave all the power to Germany and the way that Germany was exercising that power was economically wrong and politically insensitive”...”Money moves from weak countries to strong countries.   You make it easier for money to move out of Greece, out of Spain and out of Italy.   And where are they going to move?   They move to Germany.   So you create a system where when you get the shock, the weak grow weaker and the strong grow stronger”...”Germany takes the view that we are not a transfer union and we won’t even take the risk of a banking union”...”They have rewritten their history.   It wasn’t hyperinflation that led to Hitler, it was unemployment.   And if they’d listened to their own story they would not have allowed what they forced in Greece, which is 25pc unemployment and 50pc youth joblessness”...”Juncker’s response after the Brexit vote was this very hostile one, we’re going to punish anyone who leaves.   And to me that was a shocking statement.   It was saying the reason people are going to stay in the EU is not because they believe in the benefits but because of fear of leaving.   That’s a strange statement from the President.”   In short, Joseph Stiglitz says that the EU project in its current form has no future.

Now compare this with EFTA (European Free Trade Association) about which I have written so often in the past.   Based in Geneva and formed by inspired British civil servants in 1960 as an alternative to the EU’s predecessors, it now has just four members, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.   Each one has its own particular trading relationship with the EU but, and this is so remarkable, EFTA has established preferential trade relations with 24 non-EU countries, including Canada, Hong Kong and Mexico.   And negotiations are underway with eight more countries including India and Russia.   When Britain’s so-called “Establishment” simply caved in under Ted Heath and left EFTA for what is now the EU, we turned our backs on a unique organisation based on democracy and open trade for a flawed and anti-democratic ideology based on a great deception.    But post-Brexit this can be put right.   The President of Switzerland, Johann Schneider-Amman, has already told reporters that Britain’s return to EFTA after nearly 45 years would “strengthen the Association.”   Alongside the renewal of our UN and WTO roles, the restoration of our EFTA ties is one more step in the recovery of our country.   In fact, thinking about it and in the light of Joseph Stiglitz’ new book, the best thing that the member states of the EU could all do now would be to leave that toxic institution and apply individually for EFTA membership!    EUexit for the whole of Europe, with the restoration of national currencies and the end of Schengen could just be the best way to save a once-great Continent!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'Brexit and Brexports'

Last week I wrote about the Commonwealth, Captain Cook and the need to approach the United Nations (UN) at the same time as triggering Article 50 to reclaim our North Sea fisheries under its 1982 Conference on the Law of the Sea.   The point here is that the EU is an ideology, like 20th-century fascism or communism, and by leaving Britain is questioning that belief system.   No sensible negotiation with Brussels will ever be on offer and so it’s far better to go directly to those international institutions like the UN that rank above the EU in the global pecking order to secure our future.   And it’s not surprising that the only one of the EU’s five so-called Presidents who actually grasps the situation is Donald Tusk, EU Council President, who declared last week that “All too often today, EU elites seem to be detached from reality.”   For Donald Tusk is from Poland, a country which suffered terribly from both German and Vichy fascism and Soviet communism in the 20th century and which therefore of all  EU members views that EU ideology, based on the failed Euro and Schengen projects, much as we do in Britain.

 

So now, just as we should deal directly with the United Nations to reclaim our fisheries, so we should deal directly with the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to secure our trade.  Of course it would be wonderful if we could enter into a simple tariff-free trade deal with the EU post-Brexit, but the truth is that Brussels would still demand open borders and contributions to its toxic budget in return.   It would be far better if, as with an approach to the UN, we went straight to the WTO when we trigger Article 50 and claim our full place among its 162 member countries.   For the fifth largest economy in the World, it is anyway ridiculous for Britain to be contracting out our global trade relationships to Brussels.  Based in Geneva, Switzerland, the WTO was established in 1995 to take over the functions of the old GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade), itself formed in 1948.   It exists for the sole purpose of reducing tariffs and improving trade around the globe and, under the so-called Uruguay Round, now covers services such as banking, telecommunications and intellectual property.   The current round of negotiations, the so-called Doha Round, is directed at customs procedures.  And as the inward-looking, protectionist EU passes into history, so 21 more countries have applied to join the WTO.   This open, global system offers the basis for our trade and arguments over membership of the EU’s Single Market, really just a Customs Union, are a distraction from what really now needs to be done.

 

My good friend William Dartmouth, UKIP’s Trade Spokesman and MEP for the South-West and Gibraltar, wrote a brilliant pamphlet in the run-up to June’s Referendum called “Britain and the EU:  A Dysfunctional Relationship”, which is well-worth re-reading.   In this he recommended NAFTA (The North American Free Trade Area) as a valuable model for a post-Brexit Europe.   NAFTA’s economies, made up of Canada, Mexico and the United States, are about the same size as those of the EU but it is not a political union.   There is no all-powerful bureaucracy at its heart, there are no fiscal transfers and there are pretty strict border controls between the three countries.   Yet over 70% of Mexico’s exports go the Canada and the United States, while nearer 80% of Canada’s exports go to Mexico and the United States.   Meanwhile, less than 45% of Britain’s exports go elsewhere in the EU and this figure is falling fast.   In another illustration, William describes how Switzerland, an independent country and not an EU member, exports nearly five times the value of goods per head of population to the EU as does Britain.   So the point is that you do not have to be part of a political union to trade freely with another country.   But we must accept, like the EU’s own Council President, Donald Tusk that the people in Brussels with whom we shall be negotiating are “detached from reality” and that they feel wounded and aggrieved.  So it’s far better to apply for full WTO membership when we trigger Article 50, not waste any time on fruitless negotiations for Single Market membership and become a normal, open, free-trading global nation once more – therein lies our future!

 

Until next Tuesday!

 

Toby