Toby on Tuesday 

'Modest Concessions'

 

So the great prize has been won! Before the end of 2017 we shall all be asked, “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?” The existential political question of our time, which leaders of the three old parties have resisted for 40 years, will finally be put. That this has been achieved is due above all else to the persistence of UKIP and in particular of one man, Nigel Farage, for whom it has been a lifelong obsession. Without UKIP, David Cameron would never have made the commitment and, whatever lies ahead, the fact that we now have this opportunity will always remain our party’s greatest achievement. Clearly, the question is designed to elicit a “Yes” vote, but the British people are far too shrewd to be deceived by this.

Of course, Britain has been here before. In 1975 Harold Wilson, like David Cameron driven by reasons of party management rather than any strongly-held belief, likewise gave our country a referendum. Like David Cameron now, he dressed up a series of modest concessions as major reform of the then EEC. The usual suspects, the Foreign Office, the CBI, the BBC, the CIA and Brussels itself weighed in with immense financial and other pressure, just as they will over the next two years. All the usual scare tactics were employed to maintain the status quo and Wilson was rewarded with a resounding “Yes” vote when the result was announced. So Harold Wilson’s 1975 renegotiation is plainly the template for David Cameron’s coming “renegotiation” and the identical allies are already being lined up to ensure the same outcome.

But somehow I think that this time the result will be different. Although the opinion pollsters are already proclaiming a “Yes” outcome, despite being left with so much egg on their collective faces after failing to predict the result of the General Election, I believe that Britain will vote “No”. What drives our pragmatic electorate is the impact of any policy on their collective pockets. Over the coming two years, public spending will face an unprecedented squeeze. The £13 billion plus net contribution to the EU’s budget, alongside a similar sum spent on so-called Overseas Aid, will prompt voters to ask why so much money is going abroad, often lost to crime and corruption, when we have such great needs at home? And the rise of Syriza in Greece, Podemos in Spain, the Left Bloc in Portugal and, rather differently, the Front National in France, will drive home the truth that the effect of Euro membership on those countries has been an unqualified disaster. When Britain voted “Yes” in 1975, it was a response to the post-war economic miracles of Germany and France, with a wish to share in them. When Britain votes “No” in 2016/7, it will be a similar response to the abyss into which Southern Europe is staring as a result of Euro membership and the need to avoid its contagion.

Of course, when we do ultimately withdraw from the EU, it won’t be plain sailing at all. As a country, we shall have to learn to shift for ourselves again, to take responsibility for our country rather than leave everything to unaccountable civil servants. We may just have forgotten how to do this and need to relearn the lessons. Yes, there will be disruption, but the disruption of staying inside this unworkable project will be far greater. If we succeed, the reward will be immense – nothing less than the recovery of our long-term self-respect and renewed pride in our nation!

Until next Tuesday!
Toby