Toby on Tuesday

'Making The Weather'

In one more memorable phrase, Winston Churchill described Joe Chamberlain as the politician who “made the weather”.   Of course in the past generation it has been Nigel Farage and UKIP who have made the weather, preparing the ground for our new pro-Brexit consensus.   But in his own time, more than a century ago, Joe Chamberlain was a phenomenon.   The industrialist mayor of Birmingham who became an MP and then entered the Cabinet started as a reforming Liberal, then split with his party over Irish Home Rule to create the Liberal Unionists before allying himself with the Conservatives, in the process creating the Conservative and Unionist Party.   His obsessions were social reform, the improvement of the lot of working class people, the Union of Great Britain and the global English-speaking Empire, now the Commonwealth.   And where all this matters is that Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s Chief of Staff and literally the most powerful man in the country, sees Joe Chamberlain as his inspiration for the direction in which Britain is now travelling.

Nick Timothy himself comes from Birmingham, where his father was a steelworker.   He went to grammar school there and then on to Sheffield University.   In time he became director of the New Schools Network and a special adviser to Theresa May at the Home Office.   Her confidence in him is absolute.   “Our Joe”, Nick Timothy’s biography of Chamberlain, tells of his ambitious improvements in Birmingham’s education, housing and social services while mayor there.   He tells how on Chamberlain’s 70th birthday in 1906 thousands of ordinary Brummies followed a cavalcade through the city to celebrate his achievements.   And on 14th June this year, 9 days before the Referendum, Nick Timothy declared, “I have strongly held views about Europe.   I have already voted to leave the EU, I think we should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights...”   Four months later he is at the centre of government, directing events from Downing Street, so Brexit will almost certainly be for real.

Now what does all this mean for UKIP?   What is remarkable is that Paul Nuttall, MEP for North-West England and until recently our Deputy Leader, is like Nick Timothy also a specialist in Joe Chamberlain’s Edwardian politics, which he studied at Liverpool Hope University.   Later, he went on to lecture at the University, joining UKIP in 2004.   So Paul has a fine academic mind as well as a broad historical vision.   And I recall a conversation with him some years ago when he declared that UKIP was really the old Liberal Unionist Party of Joe Chamberlain adapted for the new age which could become the voice of the patriotic Midland and Northern working class.   So he and Nick Timothy were working towards the same insight, which was extraordinarily prophetic when Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would soon disenfranchise millions of loyal Labour voters.   Some could move to the Conservatives, but for most this will simply be a step too far.   Yet there is a home for these millions of Labour voters in a revitalised UKIP.   We won almost 4 million votes at the last General Election and can win millions more at the next under our new leader.   In Paul Nuttall’s own words, “There is definitely a future for a patriotic voice of the working class, and people aren’t getting that from Labour under Corbyn – that is where UKIP becomes relevant.”   And to underscore this point, there was an election the other day in the Headland and Harbour Ward of Hartlepool Borough Council.   Here is the result:

Tim Fleming (UKIP) – 496 votes (49.16%)

Trevor Rogan (Labour) – 255 votes (25.27%)

Steve Latimer (Putting Hartlepool First) – 155 votes (15.36%)

Benjamin Marshall (Conservative) – 41 votes (4.06%)

John Price (Patients Not Profits) – 36 votes (3.57%)

Chris Broadbent (Independent) – 26 votes (2.58%)

So, like Joe Chamberlain, Nigel Farage’s UKIP has made the weather.   Theresa May and Nick Timothy are wisely following.   Now we have to win elections and the Hartlepool Borough Council result is a small sign of just what is possible.  So for UKIP, despite our great Referendum achievement and its turbulent aftermath, the best may be yet to come!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby