Toby on Tuesday

'Turbulent Times'

                                                                                                                                                                                          Picture: Daily Mail

 

In a troubled and uncertain world, we are all looking for safe havens – safe haven countries and safe haven investments, which stay secure in turbulent times.  And with Brexit, Britain now has the chance to become, while still open to the world, the ultimate safe haven.   To obtain that outcome is the overwhelming task of our new Government and a renewed UKIP, which has done so much to place it in office, will be a vital element in achieving that goal.   For the great unspoken reason for ensuring our “Leave” vote on 23rd June was to minimise the risk of Britain being exposed to the fallout from two of the most destructive policy decisions in the history of Europe, the Euro currency and the Schengen border-free travel zone,   To call both of them turbulent is to understate the looming consequences of those two fatal policy misjudgements.   Both were based on a flawed ideology and the contagion from them poses an existential threat to us all.

Professor Otmar Issing was the very first chief economist of the European Central Bank and a towering figure in the creation of the Euro currency.   And last week, he finally broke cover declaring, “One day, the house of cards will collapse...Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next.   It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly...The moral hazard is overwhelming...The Stability and Growth pact has more or less failed...there is no fiscal control mechanism from markets or politics.   This has all the elements to bring disaster for monetary union.   The no bail-out clause is violated every day...The decline in the quality of eligible collateral is a grave problem.  The ECB is now buying corporate bonds that are close to junk, and the haircuts can barely deal with a one-notch credit downgrade.   The reputational risk of such actions would have been unthinkable in the past.”   Now if one of UKIP’s economists like Tim Congon had said these things, we would no doubt have been accused, in the words of the late and unlamented David Cameron, of being fruitcakes and loonies, but those are the words of one of the original creators of the Euro currency.   Yet to speak ill of the Euro currency is still seen as a form of heresy in Brussels.

Sir Julian King is the new EU security commissioner, indeed appointed by David Cameron in one of his final acts in office.    And last week too he declared that Europe with its border free Schengen zone must prepare for a fresh influx of Isil jihadists fleeing Mosul as the Iraqi army moves in on their stronghold there.   In his own words, “The retaking of the (Isil) northern Iraq territory, Mosul, may lead to the return to Europe of violent (Isil) fighters.   This is a very serious threat and we must be prepared to face it.”   Even if a handful return, it would pose a “serious threat that we must prepare ourselves for.”  In essence, Europe with its open borders must prepare for a new influx of terrorists.   Again, if Nigel Farage or a UKIP migration spokesman had said these things, all those Eurofanatics who fill our media and Parliament would have continued to vilify us, as they have always done.  We would have been accused of alarmism and racism.   But this is from the EU’s own security commissioner and a Cameron appointee.    Yet to speak ill of the Schengen zone or of the free movement policy is to question the EU’s very ideology and, as with the Euro, is another form of heresy in Brussels.  We should remember these things when Article 50 is finally invoked and negotiations for Brexit start in earnest.

So as we rebuild ourselves as a party, seeking to replace Labour in the Midlands and the North, we must remember that, for those millions of former Labour voters, a sense of security is not just an attractive option but an essential condition for their survival.  For them above all Britain must become a safe haven.   To be represented by MP’s who still show more interest in Overseas Aid and the demands of economic migrants than in the needs of their own core constituents will no longer be acceptable.    And if UKIP can be seen as the ‘safe haven’ party, protecting our country from policy failures on the Continent and the fallout from a profoundly unstable world, then we shall have secured our own futures and will be able to contribute quite as much to the future of our nation as we have done in the past generation!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby