Toby on Tuesday

'The Bloodless Revolution' 

 

 

 

 

Until last week, probably the most unpopular judge in legal history was George Jeffreys, Lord Chancellor from 1685-88 under King James II.   An alcoholic, which he attributed to kidney disease, he was notorious for keeping brandy in his inkwell and then drinking it through his quill pen while passing sentence.   But we in Britain have always had a healthy scepticism about our judiciary.   And a few weeks ago I wrote about a bizarre evening spent sitting next to the wife of a prominent pro-Remain London High Court judge at a dinner.   She berated me for being a UKIPper, she berated “Northern white trash” for voting Leave, she asked those who were there if the younger members of our families had voted Leave and, when we all replied ‘yes’, she declared, “You’re all so complacent, you Yorkshire people, it’s horrific!”   And she moaned that her son’s hopes of getting a job with Goldman Sachs were now in ruins.   I almost said that the best thing her son could do if he wanted a useful and productive life would be to come and start a business in Yorkshire, but didn’t really want to risk another outburst.  But the truth is that most High Court judges have risen up under the Blair, Brown, Clegg, Cameron dispensation, for which devotion to the EU was an essential qualification, and we can only be thankful that their era is now passed.

 

But today I don’t want to write about the Article 50 case itself, but rather about how the judges’ supporters complained when their decision was subjected to perfectly proper public comment.   For if our judges want to behave like politicians, they mustn’t object when they are consequently subjected to the rough language of politics.   Strong words are the weapons of political life and, if they choose to play the game, then they cannot be immune to robust criticism.   Vigorous debate is central to Britain’s political tradition, which could be why they don’t like it.   Of course the strongest language of all was reserved for Judge Jeffreys, the “Hanging Judge”, notorious for his Bloody Assizes after the Monmouth Rebellion.   The last time before we joined the EU when a British government tried to hand power over to a foreign authority was under King James II.   Following the Battle of Sedgemoor he sent Jeffreys down to Taunton to deal with the rebels, the UKIPpers of their day.   There he found a total of 1,381 of those charged guilty of treason.   Of these some 170 were executed, beginning with Dame Alice Lisle, the last woman in England to have been executed by judicial sentence.  Jeffreys’ black cap, his sarcastic outbursts and his quill pen loaded with brandy entered the annals of judicial infamy.  And the public outcry was so great that in 1688 there followed the Glorious or Bloodless Revolution, the Brexit vote of its time, when James II was bundled off to France, never to return.   As for Jeffreys, he ended up in the Tower of London where he died the following year.  

 

So our High Court judges shouldn’t be surprised that, when they behave like politicians, they are treated like politicians and they should be reminded that strong words hurt nobody.   But what is clear from the whole Article 50 case is that there is serious trouble ahead for Theresa May both in the House of Commons and, more especially, in the House of Lords, groaning as it is with hysterical Remainers from all parties and none.   And if next month’s appeal to the Supreme Court doesn’t succeed, as it may well not, I would be very tempted in Theresa May’s position, to call the Remainers’ bluff, announce a General Election and, as part of her manifesto, to go not only for Brexit but also for a full and thorough reform of the House of Lords.   It is obvious that the so-called Upper House will use every tactic to delay and neutralise Brexit.   The Cameron/Clegg Fixed-Term Parliament Act is an obstacle, but one which may just have to be overcome.   In this way, as well as achieving Brexit, all the flotsam and jetsam of the Blair years can finally be removed from the political stage and the detritus of that failed era, the years of Blair and Heirs-to-Blair, finally consigned to history!

 

Until next Tuesday!

 

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'With Liberty And Justice For All'

Today Americans go to the polls in their Presidential election. There are in fact four candidates who have ballot access in all, or almost all, states - Hillary Clinton (Democrat), Gary Johnson (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green) and Donald Trump (Republican). And just as we in Britain rightly objected when President Barack H. Obama came here in April during our Referendum campaign to intimidate us with his bullying "going to be at the back of the queue" threat, so our American cousins would object if we were to pass judgement on any of the candidates in their election. However, we can comment on that rich harvest of leaked emails from Hillary Clinton's private server hdr22@clintonemail.com when they relate to our own country.   And there are some priceless gems among them which spell out how the world really works.   For example, six weeks after her appointment as Secretary of State in 2009, her aide Sidney Blumenthal wrote to her, "On economic policy, the UK is no partner and no bridge to Europe," while our very own  Cherie Blair, clearly freelancing at the time, tried to get Hillary Clinton to meet members of the Qatari royal family and wrote, "As you know I have good links to the Qataris."   So welcome to the new world order of the past generation, where those who have run the global power nexus plainly see their electorates as mere fodder, to be thrown a few treats every four or five years but otherwise simply as tools in their relentless greed for money and power.

But they have been found out and our Brexit vote was the catalyst.   Whatever the result of today's poll, the truth is that the world of the Blairs and the Clintons, the Camerons and the Obamas is drawing to a close.   The combination of venality and poor judgement has been their downfall.   It now seems extraordinary that it was only seven months ago that the preening figures of Cameron and Obama conspired to deny Britain our democracy.   One has gone, while the other has just a few weeks left.   And as for the Blairs and the Clintons, no swollen bank balance can compensate for the sheer collapse of their reputations.  Now closer to home we in UKIP have an election of our own, just as important to us as the US poll.   Like the American electorate we have four candidates too, Suzanne Evans, Paul Nuttall MEP, John Rees-Evans and Peter Whittle AM.  But all four are completely united as UKIP rebuilds for the next stage of our journey, seeking to replace Labour in the Midlands, the North of England and Wales.   And our election is taking place against the background of a thriving post-Referendum economy.   The false threats behind Project Fear have been exposed and a great national recovery has begun.   And I was struck by a letter in last week's Daily Telegraph from an Italian businessman from Siena, Tuscany called Viscardo Paganelli, in which he wrote:

"As an Italian businessman, I am seriously considering moving my business to the UK after Brexit.   The EU has proved to be a disaster for Italy, with youth unemployment at 45 per cent., a stifling taxation system, plummeting property values, and (according to official statistics) national unemployment at more than 12 per cent.   Many in Italy look to Brexit with the hope that it will be the beginning of a new era, in which democracy wins out over bureaucracy and arrogance."   Well, all I can say to that is "Welcome Viscardo - benvenuto to Britain.   You and your business are more than welcome here.   You might even want to join UKIP and help rebuild our country as a truly global, outward-looking nation well away from the failing EU project!" And whoever our friends in America choose as their next President, we in UKIP will carry on working for a safe-haven Britain, a friend to all but with secure borders in a deeply troubled world!

Until next Tuesday!
Toby

 Toby on Tuesday

'A House Divided'

With just a week to go before polling day in the U.S. Presidential election, it’s a good time to revisit some of the great Presidential speeches in American history.   And among the greatest was Abraham Lincoln’s “House Divided” speech given in Springfield, Illinois on 16th June, 1858.   Warning of slavery-based disunion three years before the outbreak of the American Civil War he declared, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.   I believe this government cannot endure permanently half slave and half free...”   Of course Lincoln himself lifted the theme of his great speech from St. Matthew’s gospel in which Jesus says, “Every kingdom divided against itself is brought to desolation, and every city or house divided against itself will not stand...”   And those words of wisdom still hold true, not least for UKIP as we approach yet one more leadership election.   If we in UKIP are to achieve our potential and replace the Labour Party in the Midlands, the North of England and Wales, then our watchword now must be unity, unity and still more unity.

The 23rd June Referendum was an astonishing achievement for our party, but now that Brexit has, apart from the remaining irreconcilables, become the new consensus, our task has in some ways become much harder.  The simple theme that set us apart from all other political parties has gone and our new Government has moved quickly to colonise the ground that we held until June.   So we have to mark out new themes based on the rebuilding of our economy in the old Labour heartlands and then exporting around the world through bold new trade deals.   But none of this will happen if any of us, least of all our MEP’s, indulge in publicly criticising their colleagues or anyone else in or party.  Of course the vast majority of our MEP’s work away quietly, serving their constituents and their country to the best of their ability, but they rarely get reported.  One example is my good old friend William Dartmouth, MEP for the South-West and UKIP’s trade spokesman.   As a matter of principle he speaks only well of all his colleagues, is invariably loyal and concentrates his energies on writing compelling publications on the folly of the EU project and Britain’s prospects for global trade once we cast off the shackles of the EU.    But of course you don’t hear about him on the BBC and other media, which have far more fun reporting on the rifts and back-biting within our party.   William won’t be standing for our party’s leadership, but there will be candidates who seek to be forces for unity and it is to one of these that we must now look.   Although UKIP Thirsk and Malton will not try to influence our members’ votes, the need for unity and discipline must clearly be overwhelming.

And a strong UKIP is needed more than ever.   Our role in the past has been to speak the unvarnished truth and this will be equally true during the whole Brexit process.  And the truth is that Brexit Britain must avoid being dragged down by the Euro-banking crisis and the Euro-terror crisis.   Last week, Italy’s Monte dei Paschi di Siena suspended trading in its shares as it embarked on a rescue package while, far more significantly, Germany’s Deutsche Bank’s woes deepened.   Bizarrely, David Folkerts-Landau, Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank, demanded a 150 billion Euro bail-out fund to recapitalise the Euro-banking system saying, “Europe is seriously ill and has to deal with the existing problems extremely fast otherwise a crash will be imminent.”    And last week too the terror threat on the Continent grew still further.   Yet the Brussels ideologues refuse to consider the restoration of national currencies or the possibility of securing borders within the Schengen zone, both of which are essential to Europe’s recovery.   So a strong, disciplined and united UKIP is needed more than ever if we are to serve our country as effectively in the future as we have done in the past.  For my part, I detect an outbreak of sanity in UKIP and a growing recognition that, in the words of Abraham Lincoln, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.”   And those words will guide us as we vote in what hopefully will be our very last leadership election for several years to come!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'Turbulent Times'

                                                                                                                                                                                          Picture: Daily Mail

 

In a troubled and uncertain world, we are all looking for safe havens – safe haven countries and safe haven investments, which stay secure in turbulent times.  And with Brexit, Britain now has the chance to become, while still open to the world, the ultimate safe haven.   To obtain that outcome is the overwhelming task of our new Government and a renewed UKIP, which has done so much to place it in office, will be a vital element in achieving that goal.   For the great unspoken reason for ensuring our “Leave” vote on 23rd June was to minimise the risk of Britain being exposed to the fallout from two of the most destructive policy decisions in the history of Europe, the Euro currency and the Schengen border-free travel zone,   To call both of them turbulent is to understate the looming consequences of those two fatal policy misjudgements.   Both were based on a flawed ideology and the contagion from them poses an existential threat to us all.

Professor Otmar Issing was the very first chief economist of the European Central Bank and a towering figure in the creation of the Euro currency.   And last week, he finally broke cover declaring, “One day, the house of cards will collapse...Realistically, it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next.   It is difficult to forecast how long this will continue for, but it cannot go on endlessly...The moral hazard is overwhelming...The Stability and Growth pact has more or less failed...there is no fiscal control mechanism from markets or politics.   This has all the elements to bring disaster for monetary union.   The no bail-out clause is violated every day...The decline in the quality of eligible collateral is a grave problem.  The ECB is now buying corporate bonds that are close to junk, and the haircuts can barely deal with a one-notch credit downgrade.   The reputational risk of such actions would have been unthinkable in the past.”   Now if one of UKIP’s economists like Tim Congon had said these things, we would no doubt have been accused, in the words of the late and unlamented David Cameron, of being fruitcakes and loonies, but those are the words of one of the original creators of the Euro currency.   Yet to speak ill of the Euro currency is still seen as a form of heresy in Brussels.

Sir Julian King is the new EU security commissioner, indeed appointed by David Cameron in one of his final acts in office.    And last week too he declared that Europe with its border free Schengen zone must prepare for a fresh influx of Isil jihadists fleeing Mosul as the Iraqi army moves in on their stronghold there.   In his own words, “The retaking of the (Isil) northern Iraq territory, Mosul, may lead to the return to Europe of violent (Isil) fighters.   This is a very serious threat and we must be prepared to face it.”   Even if a handful return, it would pose a “serious threat that we must prepare ourselves for.”  In essence, Europe with its open borders must prepare for a new influx of terrorists.   Again, if Nigel Farage or a UKIP migration spokesman had said these things, all those Eurofanatics who fill our media and Parliament would have continued to vilify us, as they have always done.  We would have been accused of alarmism and racism.   But this is from the EU’s own security commissioner and a Cameron appointee.    Yet to speak ill of the Schengen zone or of the free movement policy is to question the EU’s very ideology and, as with the Euro, is another form of heresy in Brussels.  We should remember these things when Article 50 is finally invoked and negotiations for Brexit start in earnest.

So as we rebuild ourselves as a party, seeking to replace Labour in the Midlands and the North, we must remember that, for those millions of former Labour voters, a sense of security is not just an attractive option but an essential condition for their survival.  For them above all Britain must become a safe haven.   To be represented by MP’s who still show more interest in Overseas Aid and the demands of economic migrants than in the needs of their own core constituents will no longer be acceptable.    And if UKIP can be seen as the ‘safe haven’ party, protecting our country from policy failures on the Continent and the fallout from a profoundly unstable world, then we shall have secured our own futures and will be able to contribute quite as much to the future of our nation as we have done in the past generation!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

 

Toby on Tuesday

'Making The Weather'

In one more memorable phrase, Winston Churchill described Joe Chamberlain as the politician who “made the weather”.   Of course in the past generation it has been Nigel Farage and UKIP who have made the weather, preparing the ground for our new pro-Brexit consensus.   But in his own time, more than a century ago, Joe Chamberlain was a phenomenon.   The industrialist mayor of Birmingham who became an MP and then entered the Cabinet started as a reforming Liberal, then split with his party over Irish Home Rule to create the Liberal Unionists before allying himself with the Conservatives, in the process creating the Conservative and Unionist Party.   His obsessions were social reform, the improvement of the lot of working class people, the Union of Great Britain and the global English-speaking Empire, now the Commonwealth.   And where all this matters is that Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s Chief of Staff and literally the most powerful man in the country, sees Joe Chamberlain as his inspiration for the direction in which Britain is now travelling.

Nick Timothy himself comes from Birmingham, where his father was a steelworker.   He went to grammar school there and then on to Sheffield University.   In time he became director of the New Schools Network and a special adviser to Theresa May at the Home Office.   Her confidence in him is absolute.   “Our Joe”, Nick Timothy’s biography of Chamberlain, tells of his ambitious improvements in Birmingham’s education, housing and social services while mayor there.   He tells how on Chamberlain’s 70th birthday in 1906 thousands of ordinary Brummies followed a cavalcade through the city to celebrate his achievements.   And on 14th June this year, 9 days before the Referendum, Nick Timothy declared, “I have strongly held views about Europe.   I have already voted to leave the EU, I think we should withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights...”   Four months later he is at the centre of government, directing events from Downing Street, so Brexit will almost certainly be for real.

Now what does all this mean for UKIP?   What is remarkable is that Paul Nuttall, MEP for North-West England and until recently our Deputy Leader, is like Nick Timothy also a specialist in Joe Chamberlain’s Edwardian politics, which he studied at Liverpool Hope University.   Later, he went on to lecture at the University, joining UKIP in 2004.   So Paul has a fine academic mind as well as a broad historical vision.   And I recall a conversation with him some years ago when he declared that UKIP was really the old Liberal Unionist Party of Joe Chamberlain adapted for the new age which could become the voice of the patriotic Midland and Northern working class.   So he and Nick Timothy were working towards the same insight, which was extraordinarily prophetic when Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would soon disenfranchise millions of loyal Labour voters.   Some could move to the Conservatives, but for most this will simply be a step too far.   Yet there is a home for these millions of Labour voters in a revitalised UKIP.   We won almost 4 million votes at the last General Election and can win millions more at the next under our new leader.   In Paul Nuttall’s own words, “There is definitely a future for a patriotic voice of the working class, and people aren’t getting that from Labour under Corbyn – that is where UKIP becomes relevant.”   And to underscore this point, there was an election the other day in the Headland and Harbour Ward of Hartlepool Borough Council.   Here is the result:

Tim Fleming (UKIP) – 496 votes (49.16%)

Trevor Rogan (Labour) – 255 votes (25.27%)

Steve Latimer (Putting Hartlepool First) – 155 votes (15.36%)

Benjamin Marshall (Conservative) – 41 votes (4.06%)

John Price (Patients Not Profits) – 36 votes (3.57%)

Chris Broadbent (Independent) – 26 votes (2.58%)

So, like Joe Chamberlain, Nigel Farage’s UKIP has made the weather.   Theresa May and Nick Timothy are wisely following.   Now we have to win elections and the Hartlepool Borough Council result is a small sign of just what is possible.  So for UKIP, despite our great Referendum achievement and its turbulent aftermath, the best may be yet to come!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'Whose Policy?...'

“Just listen to the way a lot of politicians talk about the public.   They find your patriotism distasteful, your concerns about immigration parochial, your views about crime illiberal, your attachment to your job security inconvenient.   They find the fact that more than seventeen million voters decided to leave the European Union simply bewildering.”   No, that wasn’t Nigel Farage speaking.   It was the Prime Minister, Theresa May, addressing last week’s Conservative Party Conference.   And the truth is that the new Government has purloined not just great chunks of our General Election manifesto - on the EU, on taking the low-paid out of tax, on grammar schools and much more - but has even purloined our actual language too.   It seems extraordinary that the country has, within just four months, rejected the Blairite settlement of the past 20 years and finds itself with what is really its very first UKIP Government.

   

Of course that is what makes politics endlessly fascinating, but it does leave old UKIP with a serious challenge, not just the challenge of finding a new leader who can restore confidence to the Party, but who can also create a new identity, a kind of NewKIP.   It’s that new identity, which can retain the loyalty of the nearly 4 million voters who supported us at the General Election and add millions more, on which everything depends.

And here it’s worth a visit to the online journal HeatStreet for an article by the bookies’ favourite to succeed Diane James as UKIP’s new leader, Steven Woolfe, on http://heatst.com/world/steven-woolfe-mep-why-ukip-is-the-official-opposition-now/.   In this Steven writes, “....There are other areas of domestic policy which Theresa May is now talking about where UKIP has driven the agenda for some time.   The coalition government took the minimum wage out of tax altogether – this was a UKIP policy.   Increasing the defence budget to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO guidelines, was also a UKIP policy.   And only this week at the Conservative Party Conference, the Government announced a new scheme to build thousands more homes on brownfield sites – which was in our last manifesto   

On Sunday, Theresa May hinted at a possible bill to reform the House of Lords – something of which I am personally supportive...I hope the Prime Minister lives up to expectations and delivers on her promises, especially on Brexit and immigration controls.   There is still much to achieve in this post-Brexit world.   We in UKIP will continue to take a pragmatic view to everyday politics – we will continue to fight for what we believe in, but we will oppose and support the Government where necessary – to build a happier, more confident UK.”

So there you can see some of the ideas which will shape the new UKIP.   There is an immense amount of work to do as UKIP shapes its identity for the coming post-Brexit world.   But what is so marvellous is that politicians can even start to talk in these terms.   The days of Ministers being at the mercy of EU Directives and the so-called European Court of Justice are drawing to a close, which is the great liberation of our time.   And the extent of our escape becomes clearer as the whole EU project sinks deeper into the abyss.   Of course it existed primarily for the benefit of German industry and the German banks.   But where the British and US banks recapitalised and restructured themselves after the banking crisis, the German banks failed to do so.   

Of the two largest banks, DeutscheBank is now struggling with a $14 billion misselling fine imposed by the US Justice Department which could wipe out its remaining reserves, while Commerzbank is laying off 10,000 staff and suspending dividend payments.   And to think that Britain’s Euromaniacs saw the German economy as a role model into which we would need to integrate our own.   By a miracle the British people chose in June to avoid that fate and thus escaped disaster.   So in this post-Referendum world, in which we have what is in essence a UKIP Government, a kind of NewKIP will have a vital role to play under new leadership.   It will not be easy, but our journey has never been easy and we will make as great a contribution to Britain’s public life in future as we have in the past generation!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby

Toby on Tuesday

'Democracy Dismissed'

As the new Brexit consensus unfolds, the time has finally come to ditch the old political descriptions of 'left' and 'right'.   The world of Clarke, Kinnock and Heseltine, Miliband, Clegg and Cameron could have been a century ago for all the relevance it has to the new post-Referendum settlement, yet we continue to use language that no longer reflects the culture in which we now live.  In fact the descriptions 'left' and 'right' first appeared during the French Revolution of 1789, when those National Assembly members who supported the old French monarchy sat on the president's right and those who supported the Revolution sat on his left.   So during all the subsequent phases of the Revolution the supporters of the status quo remained on the right and their opponents stayed on the left.   We all know that the Revolution degenerated into the Terror and the guillotine, the Committee of Public Safety, then Napoleon's military dictatorship and his failed attempt to conquer Europe.   But the pattern for future revolutions was set, with the ordinary people in whose name all those uprisings took place being ignored as the leaders' frenzied thirst for power unfolded.   

Today, those who still support Britain's membership of the EU are in precisely the same position as the courtiers of the old Bourbon monarchy, hankering after their extraordinary privileges which the public mood has decided must now be brought to an end.   They have colonised the BBC and much of the media, the House of Lords and great parts of our so-called "Establishment" and they see themselves as 'progressives' or 'centrists' or of the left, yet they are as imbued with the same spirit of entitled privilege as all those who sat on the right of the president in France's revolutionary Assembly.   So are the Kinnocks and Cleggs, the Clarkes and the Milibands of the left or of the right?   The truth is that the descriptions are meaningless and instead the true division is between those who now want our country to be a self-governing democracy again and those who do not.

Among those who see themselves as pro-EU centrists, none has been more vocal during his long career than Ken Clarke.  From the days when, while studying at Cambridge, he invited Sir Oswald Mosley of first the British Union of Fascists and later of the "Europe a Nation" movement to address the students, he has been relentless in his support for the whole crazy EU project.   

And in this week's "New Statesman" he gives an idea of the trouble that he and his friends are cooking up for the Prime Minister as she seeks to ensure that Brexit actually happens.   He describes her as a "bloody difficult woman" presiding over a "government with no policies".   He goes on to say, "Nobody in the government has the first idea of what they're going to do next on the Brexit front."    Dismissing the Referendum result as a "bizarre protest vote" he confirms that he will vote against its result saying, "The idea that I'm suddenly going to change my lifelong opinions about the national interest and regard myself as instructed to vote in parliament on the basis of an opinion poll is laughable."   And then he illustrates all-too clearly why the old language of politics no longer works for he says, "I don't want us to go lurching to the right.   There is a tendency for traditional parties to polarise, and for the right wing one to go ever more to the right, and the left-wing one to go ever more to the left." Yet what is right-wing about accepting the democratic vote of a clear majority of the electorate?   And what is centrist or left-wing about blatantly promising to ignore it?  The truth is that the old language no longer works and the Ken Clarkes of this world have just the same haughty and dismissive sense of entitlement as Louis XVI's courtiers.

So in the new settlement, the divide will not be between 'left' and' right', but between democrats and anti-democrats.   And there are far too many anti-democrats in all parties, not least in Labour and the LibDems.   The Conservative party definitely has its own ranks of anti-democrats who are already on manoeuvres to thwart Brexit.   Ken Clarke has now broken cover in the Commons, as has Michael Heseltine in the Lords.    There is trouble ahead from the ideologues like Anna Soubry and the disappointed like George Osborne.   And with a wafer-thin Government majority Brexit's passage will be far from smooth.   And what of UKIP?   Of course we will support Brexit at every stage.   And are we of the 'left' or of the 'right'?  The answer is neither.   We are determined democrats, working to restore self-government to the people of our country.   The old language no longer works. Rather, we are committed at every stage under our new leader to uphold the well-being and prosperity of the British people.   That is our pledge and nothing, least of all the attempts of a failed political class that has caused untold damage while claiming immense privileges for itself, will stand in our way as we work to achieve our goal!

Until next Tuesday!

Toby